Context and Chronology

Overnight strikes struck multiple fuel storage and distribution sites in and around Tehran and adjacent Karaj, producing large, long‑burning fires, pervasive smoke across the capital and municipal air‑quality advisories. Local witnesses described sudden, bright blasts and prolonged conflagrations that left streets and roofs coated in soot while emergency services battled blazes for hours. Iranian authorities warn of toxic emissions from damaged installations and have mobilised firefighting and health teams amid strains on local hospitals.

Casualty tallies are contested: Tehran’s UN envoy publicly reported 1,332 civilian deaths with several thousand injured, while independent local monitors and open‑source trackers have produced a range of figures — Hrana recorded 1,168, other trackers have cited higher totals and at least one public tracker approached claims in the thousands — reflecting different methodologies, timeframes and severe verification constraints caused by connectivity restrictions. Separate footage and state reporting also highlight a strike on a girls’ school in Minab with an alleged toll of roughly 160+, a claim that remains unverified in independent reporting.

Attribution remains disputed. Some allied and open‑source accounts describe a coordinated U.S.–Israel operation backed by an enlarged U.S. logistical footprint in the Gulf — including tracked carrier strike assets and CENTCOM aviation exercises — while Israeli officials have both asserted precision daytime operations in Tehran and in other instances publicly denied knowledge of particular hits; U.S. officials say they are reviewing reports. The information environment was marked by near‑total early internet and communications outages in parts of Iran and reports of concurrent cyber activity, complicating independent corroboration of targets and casualties.

Operationally, the strikes on storage nodes and urban energy hubs introduce immediate fragility into domestic fuel logistics, threaten short‑term distribution and refining throughput, and push up insurance and shipping premiums for regional flows. Energy traders repriced risk almost immediately, pushing Brent and U.S. crude higher as market participants hedged transit exposure through the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime actors and insurers began contingency routing and short‑duration hedging, while some Gulf partners privately limited basing and overflight that would enable coalition operations.

Politically, Tehran’s Assembly of Experts says it has reached internal agreement on succession mechanics though no public name has been disclosed — an unresolved leadership question that compounds domestic political risk. The cumulative effect of visible civilian harm, contested attribution and information control deepens humanitarian pressure, narrows diplomatic space for de‑escalation, and increases the danger that tactical incidents or proxy responses could broaden into wider confrontation.