
U.S. job gains accelerate in January as unemployment falls to 4.3%
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U.S. Payrolls Fall 92,000; Unemployment Rises to 4.4%
Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, signaling renewed labor-market softening. Methodological shifts, a large January wave of announced corporate layoffs, and concentrated healthcare-sector disruptions complicate attribution and raise the risk that headline volatility masks a broader cooling in hiring.

UK unemployment rises to 5.2% as regular private-sector pay cools to 3.4%
UK unemployment climbed to 5.2% in Q4 2025 while the Bank of England’s preferred private‑sector pay gauge slowed to 3.4%, signalling softer labour-market momentum and lower wage-driven inflation. The data has already prompted market re‑pricing — trimming near‑term rate‑hike odds and lifting the chance of an easing by spring — but policymakers stress that any move will remain contingent on incoming evidence.
U.S. January Layoff Announcements Spike to Levels Not Seen Since 2009
U.S. companies announced 108,435 job cuts in January, more than double the same month a year earlier and the largest January tally since 2009. Hiring plans plunged to 5,306, marking the weakest January on record for planned hiring and signaling employer caution heading into 2026.

U.S. GDP Slows to 1.4% in Q4 2025 as Core PCE Remains Elevated
Economic activity cooled at the end of 2025 with fourth-quarter annualized GDP at 1.4%, weighed in part by an extended federal funding lapse. Retail purchases also stalled in December as households pulled back amid price pressures and labor-market uncertainty, while core PCE stayed near 3.0%, complicating the Fed’s path forward.
US job growth trails as AI investment and immigration cuts reshape the labor market
The US economy expanded at about a 2.2% annual pace in 2025 while payrolls rose only modestly (roughly 181,000 for the year) and the unemployment rate sat near 4.3%. Heavy capital spending on AI — part of a roughly $1.5 trillion global infrastructure wave — plus a sharp fall in immigration (net inflows near ~160,000 versus ~1.1M in typical years) and policy-driven labor constraints have lifted measured output and asset values but suppressed hiring, raised long-term unemployment and intensified sectoral shortages.

Long-term unemployment becomes entrenched as US hiring cools
Long-term joblessness in the US is rising even as the headline unemployment rate hovers near 4.3% — driven by sharply weaker hiring, a surge in announced layoffs, demographic and immigration shifts that shrink both worker and consumer pools, and faster adoption of automation and AI. These demand-side changes are lengthening searches, compressing wages for rehires, and limiting lateral mobility, particularly for early-career and visa-dependent candidates.

Federal Reserve Keeps Benchmark Rate at 3.50%–3.75% as Inflation Remains Sticky and Jobs Show Mixed Signals
The Federal Reserve held its policy rate at 3.50%–3.75%, signaling a data-dependent pause as core inflation stays above target and labor-market readings soften; two governors dissented for an immediate 25 bps cut. Policymakers also face a shifting committee composition and governance timeline that narrow the path to rapid easing, while markets have pushed expected initial cuts later into the summer.
Raphael Bostic: Fed Faces Risk of Higher Structural Unemployment as AI Cuts Labor Needs
Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic warns that widespread corporate adoption of AI could raise the U.S. natural unemployment rate, limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to offset job losses with rate cuts. Other senior Fed voices offer contrasting scenarios — from a broad productivity dividend that could lift r* and support tighter policy to nominees who see disinflationary scope for cuts — making the speed, breadth and concentration of AI adoption the decisive factor for markets and fiscal planners.